The recent slide has made things uncomfortable on the Plains, but the Auburn Tigers are far from eliminated in the race to March Madness.
If you’re an Auburn supporter, the past couple of weeks have likely been spent refreshing NET rankings nonstop. The first true crisis point of the Steven Pearl era has arrived after a four-game losing streak to Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and most recently Arkansas. As a result, Auburn now sits at 14–11 overall and 5–7 in SEC play numbers that, at first glance, resemble an NIT résumé more than an NCAA Tournament one.
But context matters.
Despite the skid, Auburn remains around No. 32 in the NET rankings. The primary reason? The Tigers have navigated the toughest schedule in the country. Strength of schedule has kept their profile afloat — though it won’t save them indefinitely if the losses continue.
Breaking Down the Résumé
Auburn’s body of work is a mixed bag. The high points are impressive: a neutral-court victory over St. John’s, a dominant home performance against NC State, and a statement road win at Florida when the Gators were ranked in the top 10. Those wins show the Tigers can compete with elite competition.
The concern lies in their 4–10 mark in Quadrant 1 games. While Auburn has avoided damaging Q3 or Q4 losses — something that keeps their floor relatively high they haven’t capitalized often enough in marquee matchups.
Adding to the uncertainty is the ongoing transition from Bruce Pearl to his son Steven. The intensity remains, but the late-game composure and closing ability that defined last season’s Final Four squad have been inconsistent. The recent suspension of leading scorer Keyshawn Hall further complicates matters, as Auburn may need to navigate critical games without its top offensive weapon.
Six Games to Define the Season
With six regular-season games remaining before the SEC Tournament in Nashville, Auburn likely needs to reach 9–9 in conference play to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. That means going at least 4–2 down the stretch.
Three home games Kentucky, Ole Miss, and LSU are crucial. Protecting Neville Arena is non-negotiable. A loss to Ole Miss would severely damage their résumé, while a win over Kentucky would provide a valuable Quadrant 1 boost and potentially move Auburn back toward the top 25 in the NET.
On the road, matchups at Mississippi State and Oklahoma loom large. These are the type of gritty games the selection committee evaluates closely. Winning in hostile environments could be the difference between a comfortable bid and sweating out the bubble.
Then there’s the regular-season finale at Alabama. Entering that rivalry matchup needing a victory would bring enormous pressure. Ideally, Auburn handles enough business beforehand to avoid putting its entire postseason fate on that one game.
Where Things Stand
Bracket projections currently slot Auburn around an 8-seed, though their margin for error is shrinking. Thanks to a strong schedule and lack of bad losses, they still have a realistic shot roughly a two-in-three chance of earning an at-large bid.
The ceiling? A strong 5–1 finish, including wins over Kentucky and Alabama, plus a deep SEC Tournament run could elevate them to a 6-seed.
The more probable outcome? A 3–3 or 4–2 close, a middle-of-the-pack SEC finish, and a seed in the 8–10 range the type of team no higher seed wants to face.
Auburn’s tournament hopes are still alive. The talent is there. Now, it’s about stacking wins and stabilizing before the opportunity slips away.
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