The Toronto Blue Jays are heading toward a pivotal offseason with a significant financial and roster question hanging over their starting rotation: what should the organization do with veteran right-hander José Berríos?
Berríos has missed the entire 2026 season because of a serious elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in May. The procedure is expected to keep him out for a significant portion of the 2027 season, creating a difficult situation for a Toronto club that will still owe him a substantial amount of money.
If Berríos does not exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, the Blue Jays are scheduled to owe him $24 million in both 2027 and 2028, leaving the organization responsible for another $48 million over the final two years of his deal.
That financial commitment could become one of the most important offseason storylines for Toronto, particularly because Berríos is unlikely to be ready for the beginning of next season.
Tommy John Surgery Changed Everything
Berríos entered 2026 hoping to recover from an elbow problem that had already caused him to miss Toronto’s postseason roster the previous year.
The Blue Jays initially hoped his elbow issue could be addressed with a relatively minor procedure. However, when doctors examined the elbow during surgery, they determined that a full ligament reconstruction was necessary.
Berríos subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery on May 20, with Toronto manager John Schneider saying the pitcher was expected to be sidelined for roughly 12 to 14 months. Other reports have placed his recovery timeline at 12 to 18 months.
That timeline means the Blue Jays will likely have to plan for a lengthy period without one of their established rotation pieces.
For Toronto, the situation is especially frustrating because Berríos had been one of the most durable pitchers in the organization since arriving from the Minnesota Twins in 2021.
A Veteran Who Had Been a Rotation Fixture
Before the injury, Berríos had developed a reputation for durability.
He made at least 30 starts in each of the five seasons before 2026, giving the Blue Jays a dependable presence in their rotation. Over his career with Minnesota and Toronto, he has accumulated a 108-82 record with a 4.08 ERA in 275 games, including 273 starts.
The right-hander is also a two-time All-Star, having established himself as one of the more recognizable starting pitchers of his generation.
His final full season before the injury was not spectacular, however. Berríos went 9-5 with a 4.17 ERA across 31 appearances in 2025. The Blue Jays were nevertheless counting on him to provide innings and stability in a rotation that has undergone considerable changes.
His absence has therefore created both a performance problem and a financial challenge.
Toronto May Not Get Much Relief From the Contract
The contract situation makes the injury particularly complicated.
Berríos signed a seven-year, $131 million extension with Toronto in November 2021. The agreement includes a player opt-out after the 2026 season, but given his injury and expected recovery timeline, it would be extremely surprising if he chose to walk away from $48 million in guaranteed salary.
That means Toronto is likely to carry the remaining two years of the contract into the next phase of the franchise.
From Berríos’ perspective, exercising the opt-out would mean giving up $48 million while recovering from major elbow surgery and potentially missing a large portion of the 2027 campaign.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the contract limits their financial flexibility at a time when the organization needs to address several areas of the roster.
The Timing Is Particularly Difficult
The Blue Jays are entering the final stages of a season that has not unfolded as smoothly as the organization hoped.
Toronto went into 2026 with significant expectations after reaching the postseason in 2025, but the team has spent much of this season fighting to remain relevant in the American League playoff picture.
Following a 6-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals on September 6, Toronto sat at 72-72 after 144 games. The Blue Jays did, however, win two of three games in Kansas City and had gone 7-3 over their previous 10 games, showing signs of improvement as the playoff race intensified.
That recent improvement means the organization cannot simply focus on rebuilding.
Toronto still has a competitive roster and will likely enter the offseason looking for ways to improve rather than beginning an extensive teardown.
The Berríos contract will therefore have to be considered alongside the club’s efforts to strengthen the rotation and overall roster.
Rotation Depth Has Become a Major Issue
The Blue Jays’ pitching staff has already experienced significant turnover and injury problems.
Toronto has needed contributions from pitchers who were not necessarily expected to carry such large workloads, while the organization has also been forced to search for reliable options behind its top starters.
With Berríos expected to miss much of 2027, the Blue Jays cannot simply assume that his return will immediately solve their rotation problems.
Even when he eventually returns, Tommy John recovery can be unpredictable. Pitchers often need additional time after returning to rebuild command, velocity and endurance.
That means Toronto could potentially need to add multiple starting-pitching options during the offseason.
Berríos’ Return Will Require Patience
The biggest mistake Toronto could make would be expecting Berríos to return from Tommy John surgery and immediately become the pitcher he was before the injury.
The rehabilitation process is lengthy.
Berríos will have to progress through throwing programs, bullpen sessions, live batting practice and eventually competitive games before he can be considered ready for a major-league workload.
Even after returning, the Blue Jays may need to carefully manage his innings.
For a pitcher who has traditionally been valued for his durability, that represents a significant adjustment.
The organization will therefore have to think about Berríos not simply as a 2027 rotation piece, but as a pitcher whose workload and effectiveness may gradually build over the course of the season.
The Financial Pressure Could Influence Other Moves
The $48 million commitment could also influence what Toronto does elsewhere.
Every dollar committed to Berríos is money that cannot be used for another position unless ownership is willing to significantly increase payroll.
The Blue Jays have several roster needs, including additional starting pitching and depth throughout the team.
If Berríos remains on the books at $24 million per season, the front office will have less flexibility to pursue multiple expensive free agents.
That does not mean Toronto cannot improve.
Instead, it could force the organization to become more creative.
The Blue Jays could pursue shorter-term contracts, look for undervalued pitchers, develop younger arms or attempt trades that provide controllable talent without requiring massive financial commitments.
There Is Still a Path for Berríos to Become Valuable Again
Despite the financial concerns, it would be premature to assume Berríos cannot become an important part of Toronto’s future.
He is still relatively young for a veteran starting pitcher, and his career track record demonstrates that he has the ability to provide quality innings.
If his rehabilitation progresses well, Berríos could potentially return during the 2027 season and give Toronto a meaningful boost during the second half.
That could make the timing of his return particularly important.
If the Blue Jays are in contention when Berríos becomes healthy, he could essentially become a midseason reinforcement without the organization having to surrender prospects in a trade.
In that scenario, the $24 million salary would look considerably more manageable.
The Blue Jays Need to Plan for Both Scenarios
Toronto’s front office therefore has to prepare for two possibilities.
The first is that Berríos returns earlier than expected and is capable of becoming a reliable rotation option during the second half of 2027.
The second is that his recovery takes longer, forcing the Blue Jays to operate without him for most or all of the season.
The organization cannot build its entire rotation around the assumption that Berríos will be healthy.
Instead, it needs enough depth to withstand another extended absence.
That is why the upcoming offseason could be so important.
His Contract Is Not the Only Concern
The Berríos situation also highlights a broader issue facing Toronto.
The Blue Jays must determine which veterans remain part of their long-term competitive core and which positions need to be refreshed.
The club has already begun incorporating younger players while attempting to remain competitive in the American League East.
That balancing act is difficult.
Toronto does not want to waste the prime years of its established stars, but it also cannot ignore the need for younger, controllable talent.
Berríos’ contract sits directly in the middle of that challenge.
What Happens Next?
The most likely outcome is that Berríos remains under contract with the Blue Jays for 2027 and 2028.
Given the circumstances surrounding his elbow surgery and lengthy rehabilitation, opting out of $48 million would make little financial sense for the pitcher.
For Toronto, the priority will be monitoring his recovery while simultaneously building a rotation capable of competing without him.
The Blue Jays will need to avoid putting too much pressure on Berríos to return quickly.
Instead, they should focus on getting him completely healthy.
If he can return to his previous level, the final years of the contract could still provide value.
If his recovery is slower or his performance declines, however, the $48 million commitment could become a significant obstacle for an organization trying to reshape its roster.
A Major Offseason Storyline
The Berríos situation is therefore much bigger than one injured pitcher.
It is a test of Toronto’s roster construction, financial planning and ability to manage a long-term injury.
The Blue Jays have to decide how aggressively to invest in their pitching staff while knowing that $48 million remains committed to a player who may not pitch until well into the 2027 season.
At the same time, they cannot afford to stand still if they believe the current roster is capable of competing.
The organization will need to strike a delicate balance between short-term competitiveness and long-term flexibility.
For now, Berríos remains one of the biggest financial and medical question marks surrounding the franchise.
The Blue Jays will hope his rehabilitation ultimately produces the best possible outcome: a healthy veteran starter returning to the rotation and helping Toronto make another postseason push.
But until that happens, the organization must prepare for life without him while carrying the weight of a $48 million commitment over the next two seasons.
Leave a Reply