The 2026 season may have ended without postseason baseball for the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals, but both organizations have emerged from the year with something far more valuable for rebuilding clubs: evidence that their young cores may be developing faster than expected. Neither team entered the season with realistic expectations of competing deep into September, and both were widely viewed as clubs that could endure another difficult year. Instead, the Cardinals and Nationals managed to remain competitive for much of the season, making their eventual elimination from playoff contention feel more like the end of an unexpectedly promising chapter than the conclusion of a failed campaign. The Cardinals even entered the final stretch with a chance to finish around or above .500, while Washington maintained a positive run differential despite its overall record. Those developments have changed the conversation heading into 2027. Rather than simply asking when these teams might eventually become competitive again, attention is now turning toward what they need to do to accelerate that process.
For both clubs, the biggest obstacle is obvious: the bullpen needs a significant transformation. Rebuilding teams often devote fewer resources to their relief corps because developing young starters, position players and prospects tends to take priority. That strategy can make sense during the early stages of a rebuild, but the weaknesses become increasingly costly once a young roster starts winning more games. The Cardinals and Nationals experienced that problem repeatedly in 2026. St. Louis posted a 4.55 bullpen ERA, ranking 24th in MLB, along with a 4.32 FIP that ranked 22nd and a 21.2% strikeout rate that placed the club 23rd. The Cardinals also recorded 30 blown saves and 106 bullpen meltdowns. Washington’s numbers were even more concerning, with a 5.04 bullpen ERA and 4.97 FIP, both ranking 29th, while its 18.9% strikeout rate also ranked 29th. The Nationals led MLB with 39 blown saves and 110 meltdowns.
Those numbers matter because modern MLB teams increasingly depend on their bullpens to cover more innings. Starting pitchers are often removed earlier than in previous eras, placing greater pressure on middle relievers, setup men and closers to protect leads. A weak bullpen therefore has the potential to undermine otherwise promising work from a team’s lineup and rotation. Both St. Louis and Washington demonstrated that problem during 2026. Their relief groups struggled not only to prevent runs but also to generate strikeouts and consistently protect leads. FanGraphs’ meltdown statistic further illustrates the issue, measuring appearances in which a reliever reduces his team’s win probability by at least six percentage points. The Cardinals and Nationals ranked near the top of the league in these damaging appearances, showing that their bullpen problems were not simply the result of a few isolated blown games.
The encouraging part for both organizations is that fixing a bullpen is generally more achievable than rebuilding an entire roster. Neither team necessarily needs to make an expensive splash for a marquee closer. Instead, improvement could come from several different directions: internal promotions, converting starters into relievers, improving individual pitch arsenals, finding pitchers with better underlying skills and making targeted additions through free agency or trades. That gives both front offices considerable flexibility. If St. Louis and Washington can turn even an average portion of their bullpen innings into reliable outs, their overall records could improve simply because their existing lineups and rotations would have more opportunities to turn close games into victories. For teams already showing signs of offensive development, a competent bullpen could become the missing link between being an interesting rebuilding club and becoming a genuine postseason challenger.
Washington’s position-player group provides another reason for optimism. The Nationals possess one of MLB’s youngest lineups, and despite the team’s overall struggles, the offense has demonstrated enough quality to suggest that the foundation is already in place. The organization has also resisted efforts to move shortstop CJ Abrams, signaling the importance placed on keeping established young talent together. The next major question involves Dylan Crews, the former No. 2 overall pick. At 24, Crews remains young enough to take a substantial step forward and establish himself alongside James Wood as one of the central pieces of Washington’s next competitive team. If Crews develops into the kind of impact hitter the organization envisioned when it drafted him, the Nationals could suddenly have a much more dangerous young core. Wood’s emergence gives Washington another important building block, while keeping Abrams in the mix provides additional continuity.
The Cardinals are in a similarly intriguing position, with MLB’s second-youngest lineup and much of their offensive foundation already established. JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson represent important pieces of the team’s next competitive window, while the emergence of catcher Leo Bernal has potentially reduced another major area of uncertainty. That leaves third base and center field as the most obvious positions requiring further attention heading into 2027 and beyond. Even there, however, St. Louis has prospects and internal options that could help bridge the gap. The organization therefore does not appear to be starting from scratch. Instead, the challenge is about adding the right pieces around a young group that has already shown it can produce at a respectable level.
The underlying offensive statistics reinforce that optimism. St. Louis recorded a .321 expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, which ranked sixth in MLB, while Washington posted a .324 mark that ranked second. xwOBA attempts to measure the quality of offensive contact and estimate what a hitter or lineup should have produced based on that contact, while reducing the influence of luck and defensive outcomes. For rebuilding teams, those numbers can be particularly encouraging because they suggest the offensive production is not entirely dependent on favorable breaks. Both clubs therefore have young offenses whose underlying performance provides reason to believe that further development could come in 2027.
The pitching outlook also gives both teams something to build around. St. Louis has several pitchers who could occupy rotation spots in 2027, including Kyle Leahy, Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante. The competition for the remaining rotation positions could feature prospects and young pitchers such as Quinn Mathews, Matthew Liberatore, Richard Fitts and Cooper Hjerpe, along with Triple-A contributors Jurrangelo Cijntje and Mason Molina. That depth means the Cardinals could potentially improve internally before even entering the free-agent market. Washington has a developing group of its own, with Cade Cavalli positioned toward the front of the rotation and prospects such as Andrew Alvarez and Jarlin Susana providing additional upside. Connelly Early, acquired from Boston before the trade deadline, could also enter the Nationals’ plans. Both clubs have enough pitching depth to justify selective additions rather than attempting another wholesale rebuild.
There is also an external factor that could dramatically influence the 2027 picture: MLB’s ongoing collective bargaining negotiations. The possibility of changes to the postseason structure remains part of the broader discussion, including the potential for an expanded playoff field. The current system features 12 postseason teams, while owners previously pushed for a larger 14-team field during the last round of collective bargaining. Any future expansion would naturally lower the threshold required for a team to remain in the playoff race deep into the season. For young rebuilding teams such as the Cardinals and Nationals, that could be particularly significant. A club that might currently need a strong winning record to qualify could potentially remain relevant with a more modest record if the postseason field grows.
Ultimately, the 2026 seasons have given both St. Louis and Washington something they desperately needed: evidence that their rebuilds are producing a foundation worth investing in. The Cardinals have a young lineup, emerging talent behind the plate and multiple pitching options developing throughout the organization. The Nationals have an equally intriguing offensive core built around young players such as James Wood, CJ Abrams and the hoped-for emergence of Dylan Crews, while additional pitching prospects continue to move toward the majors. Neither club can afford to assume that improvement will happen automatically, however. The bullpen weaknesses are too significant to ignore, and both front offices will need to make smart decisions about which positions require outside additions and which can be solved internally.
If the Cardinals and Nationals successfully address their relief pitching while allowing their young position players and starters to continue developing, the 2027 season could look very different from what many expected when the 2026 campaign began. Their playoff eliminations may have ended their immediate postseason hopes, but they also provided a clearer picture of what these organizations already possess. The next stage of the rebuild is no longer simply about collecting prospects and waiting for the future. It is about converting a promising young core into a roster capable of consistently winning games. For both St. Louis and Washington, that transition could begin much sooner than originally anticipated.
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