With the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2026 season officially over, it is finally possible to evaluate the team’s entire 162-game campaign without worrying about what might happen next. And when the season is viewed from the perspective of the expectations surrounding the club before Opening Day, the Cardinals have plenty of reasons to feel encouraged.
Coming into the year, the Cardinals were widely projected to struggle. The preseason expectations were particularly low, with one widely cited projection putting their win total at just 68.5 games. Instead, St. Louis finished 77–85, giving the club nine more victories than that projection and allowing the organization to finish fourth in the NL Central. While an 85-loss season is hardly something to celebrate as a championship achievement, it represented a considerably better outcome than many expected and provided the franchise with a foundation for the next stage of its rebuild.
There were certainly stretches when the Cardinals were frustrating. The club repeatedly hovered around nine games over .500 without managing to break into double-digit territory, creating the feeling that a more aggressive push could have produced an even better season. The trade deadline also left some fans wanting more, particularly because the Cardinals remained competitive long enough to make the possibility of strengthening the roster particularly interesting. Then came a disappointing September that took some of the excitement out of the final weeks. Still, the Cardinals remained competitive for much of the year and gave their fan base plenty of reasons to stay engaged.
Burleson turned into a major preseason prediction win
One of the clearest examples of the Cardinals outperforming expectations came from Alec Burleson. Before the season, one preseason prediction identified Burleson as a potential team MVP because of his consistency, steady improvement and leadership potential.
The prediction called for roughly .275 batting average, 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. Those numbers would have represented a strong season for Burleson, but the Cardinals outfielder ultimately exceeded those expectations in a major way.
Rather than simply reaching those projections, Burleson surpassed them and emerged as one of the most productive run producers in baseball. His offensive performance was particularly impressive because he ultimately led all of MLB in RBIs, turning what initially looked like an optimistic preseason projection into one of the more accurate predictions surrounding the team.
His emergence was one of the biggest positives of the Cardinals’ season and gives St. Louis another important offensive piece to build around moving forward.
Masyn Winn was the major disappointment
The story was very different for Masyn Winn.
Entering the season, Winn was once again viewed as a potential breakout candidate. There was an expectation that the young shortstop could finally put everything together offensively, potentially reaching double-digit home runs, stealing additional bases and pushing his batting average toward the .270 range.
Instead, Winn struggled to deliver the offensive breakout that many had anticipated.
His inconsistent ability to get on base limited his opportunities to use his speed, while injuries also became a concern. Rather than making the expected leap toward becoming a 20-homer, 20-steal type of player, the focus heading into next season is now much more modest: staying healthy, improving his consistency and producing something closer to a .250 average with around 10 home runs.
Despite the disappointing season, there is still belief that Winn can remain an important part of the Cardinals’ long-term plans. The question is whether he can finally stay healthy and translate his considerable tools into consistent production.
Dustin May provided another interesting success
On the pitching side, Dustin May was another preseason prediction that came close to becoming a complete success.
The expectation was that May could enjoy a strong season despite the belief that he was likely to be traded before the deadline. The prediction proved accurate on that front. May spent only part of the season with St. Louis before being traded to Milwaukee.
Before the trade, however, he showed enough to suggest that the Cardinals’ decision to acquire and develop him had merit. The larger prediction was that May would become a difference-maker for whichever contender acquired him and that his performance would help St. Louis receive a strong return.
While the season did not completely fulfill that forecast, May still represented a useful piece of the Cardinals’ 2026 pitching story. His development and eventual trade also fit into the larger rebuilding strategy of accumulating talent while remaining flexible with veteran players.
The stolen-base prediction fell apart
One of the boldest preseason predictions involved the Cardinals becoming significantly more aggressive on the bases.
The expectation was that Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II and JJ Wetherholt could combine for 100 stolen bases. The prediction initially appeared promising because all three players immediately showed some willingness to run during the opening week.
But the momentum quickly disappeared.
Scott struggled to establish himself offensively, which naturally limited his opportunities to reach base and steal. Winn also struggled to consistently get on base, while Wetherholt became more valuable as an offensive weapon in other ways.
Instead of turning into a 100-steal combination, the trio fell well short of that target.
The lesson for the Cardinals is that speed alone does not automatically translate into stolen bases. Players have to reach base consistently, get good jumps and have enough opportunities to run. Still, the Cardinals could benefit from becoming more aggressive on the bases in 2027, particularly if their young players develop greater consistency offensively.
The final record was almost exactly what was predicted
Perhaps the most interesting part of the season was how closely the final results matched one preseason prediction.
The Cardinals finished 77–85, exactly matching the predicted record.
They also finished fourth in the NL Central, another prediction that turned out to be correct.
However, the bigger assessment of the division was badly wrong. The preseason expectation was that the NL Central would be relatively mediocre, with the Milwaukee Brewers projected as the strongest club and the Chicago Cubs potentially sneaking into the postseason.
Instead, the division proved much stronger.
The Cubs reached the postseason, the Brewers remained highly competitive and even the Pittsburgh Pirates finished above .500. Rather than being a weak division, the NL Central became one of the more competitive divisions in baseball.
For St. Louis, that made the 77-win season somewhat more understandable. The Cardinals were not operating in a division where simply being competent guaranteed a respectable finish. They had to compete against several teams that were also capable of winning games at a high rate.
The bullpen remained a major unresolved problem
Despite the positives, the season also reinforced several concerns that had been identified early.
One of the biggest issues was the bullpen.
As the Cardinals remained surprisingly competitive in April, questions emerged about whether the organization would strengthen its relief corps at the trade deadline if the team remained in contention.
That opportunity eventually arrived, but St. Louis did not make the type of aggressive bullpen investment some fans expected.
The decision became more frustrating as the season progressed because the bullpen remained one of the team’s most obvious weaknesses. The lack of significant reinforcement ultimately became one of the recurring issues that prevented the Cardinals from turning their competitive start into a genuine postseason push.
The situation also illustrated the difficult balance facing the organization. St. Louis was competitive enough to make fans believe a playoff push was possible, but not quite strong enough to justify sacrificing significant future assets for short-term upgrades.
A season that changed the outlook
Ultimately, the Cardinals’ 2026 campaign should probably be viewed as a successful step rather than a finished product.
They did not make the playoffs. They finished below .500. They also had significant weaknesses, particularly in the bullpen and at the top of the starting rotation.
But compared with the expectations surrounding the team before Opening Day, St. Louis clearly exceeded expectations.
The Cardinals avoided the disaster many predicted and instead demonstrated that the organization has enough young talent and competitive pieces to begin building toward a better future.
Burleson’s offensive breakout was a major positive. Wetherholt continued to show why he is considered an important young piece. Several pitchers gained valuable experience, while players such as Winn and Scott now have another offseason to address their weaknesses.
The biggest takeaway is that the Cardinals were much closer to being competitive than many expected. The next challenge for Chaim Bloom and the organization will be turning that competitiveness into genuine postseason contention.
The 77–85 record shows that St. Louis still has work to do. But after entering 2026 with extremely low expectations, finishing with 77 victories and a clearer understanding of which players can be part of the next competitive Cardinals team represents meaningful progress.
For a franchise in transition, that may ultimately be the most important achievement of the season.
Leave a Reply