With the Cardinals entering the early stages of a rebuild, expectations among fans are already modest. Still, the latest projections from Baseball Prospectus suggest things could be even bleaker than many anticipated.
According to the newly released PECOTA standings, St. Louis is projected to finish last in the National League Central with a 66–96 record. The underlying numbers are just as concerning: PECOTA forecasts the Cardinals being outscored 761 to 624 over the course of the season.
The player usage projections offer some surprising details. Ivan Herrera is expected to make just 20% of his appearances at catcher, spending most of his time (60%) as a designated hitter. JJ Wetherholt is forecasted to play second base in 70% of his games, with brief stints at third and shortstop. Pedro Pagés is projected to handle catching duties in half of the team’s games. Nolan Gorman, meanwhile, is predicted to split time across multiple positions primarily third base (60%), but also first base, second base, and DH a breakdown that may raise eyebrows among fans.
On the pitching side, PECOTA envisions Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero sharing closing responsibilities. Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante are projected to average 5.6 innings per start, Michael McGreevy five innings, and Dustin May just over four. Kyle Leahy is expected to bounce between starting and setup roles, averaging nearly five innings per outing.
While I’m no bettor, I’d lean toward the over on that 66-win forecast. It’s the lowest projection I’ve seen for St. Louis this offseason, and it feels overly pessimistic. Although 2026 may not translate into a winning record, this roster appears to have upside and foundational pieces that could move the organization back in the right direction. If PECOTA’s projection proves accurate, however, it could be a long and difficult season.
In other Cardinals news, St. Louis acquired right-hander George Soriano from the Nationals in exchange for Andre Granillo though it’s unlikely that move will significantly shift the PECOTA outlook.
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