Every season brings unexpected outcomes, with certain players far exceeding expectations while others fall short. Part of being a fan is making bold predictions guessing who will break out and who might disappoint.
For instance, I believe Masyn Winn could outperform projections and deliver a 5-WAR season. Whether backed by stats, intuition, or narrative, that expectation creates a clear picture of what I anticipate. If things unfold differently, it would come as a surprise.
On the other hand, some players are far harder to gauge. Nolan Gorman is a perfect example he could smash 40 home runs or be designated for assignment by midseason, and neither result would be shocking. This list highlights five major leaguers and five minor leaguers whose 2026 outcomes feel especially uncertain.
Major Leaguers
Nolan Gorman
This is a pivotal year for Gorman. With only three seasons of team control remaining, gradual improvement won’t be enough he needs a true breakout at age 26. If he doesn’t show meaningful progress in contact and power translation early, the Cardinals may move on quickly. By the All-Star break, he could either be a key offensive piece or on the chopping block.
Andre Pallante
Pallante excels at limiting damage but lacks the swing-and-miss ability typically needed from starters or high-leverage relievers. If he can refine an off-speed pitch and improve control, he still has mid-rotation potential. Without those adjustments, however, he’s unlikely to play a major role on a competitive team.
Dustin May
May’s talent has never been in question, but injuries and inconsistency have defined his career. Encouragingly, he’s shown improved velocity this spring. If he can pair his early-career stuff with sustained health, he could become a major asset even with ace-level upside.
Nathan Church
Church went from an afterthought to a breakout performer in 2025, but his future remains unclear. He could settle in as a fringe player or emerge as a strong everyday contributor. His evolving power profile makes him especially difficult to project after struggling during his major league stint.
Thomas Saggese
Once a top-100 prospect, Saggese hasn’t drawn as much attention recently. Still just 24, he offers solid defense and potential upside. The key question is whether he can consistently tap into the power he displayed in the minors to make a real offensive impact.
Minor Leaguers
These prospects vary widely in potential outcomes they could become top-100 prospects or fall off the radar entirely within a year.
Yairo Padilla
Best case: He taps into his physical tools and begins showing real power, unlocking his high ceiling.
Worst case: Continued lack of in-game power makes him look more like a low-impact prospect.
Deniel Ortiz
Best case: Builds on a strong debut and refines his contact skills, becoming a breakout candidate.
Worst case: Persistent contact issues and defensive limitations derail his trajectory.
Chen-Wei Lin
Best case: His high-velocity fastball and developing secondary pitches allow him to stick as a starter and break out.
Worst case: Injuries or control problems push him out of serious prospect consideration.
Braden Davis
Best case: Improves his command and leverages his elite strikeout ability into top-prospect status.
Worst case: Ongoing control issues limit him to a potential bullpen role.
Sebastian Dos Santos
Best case: Builds on strong early production and emerges as a breakout player, following recent successful examples from the system.
Worst case: Without power development, he struggles to stand out in the lower minors.
While projections dominate preseason discussions, some of the most important storylines come from players who defy expectations. Those unknowns often end up shaping the season the most.
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