Every offseason, player projection models give us stat lines that make you do a double take.
For 2026, we’re diving into the Steamer projections on FanGraphs, one of baseball’s leading forecasting systems, to spotlight numbers that really stand out.
Sure, superstars like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani top the charts as usual. Judge is forecast to lead the AL with 43 homers, 103 RBIs and a 1.004 OPS. Ohtani’s two-way outlook is unreal: 44 home runs, 120 runs scored, a 3.46 ERA, 136 strikeouts on the mound and an MLB-best 7.9 WAR. That’s basically a “normal” season for them — and they often outperform even those lofty baselines.
But this isn’t just about the biggest stars. It’s about the most intriguing storylines hidden in the numbers.
Here are 13 projections for 2026 that really pop:
1) Ronald Acuña Jr. back in MVP form
Projected: 31 HR, 24 SB, .891 OPS, 5.3 WAR
In his first full year after ACL recovery, Acuña looks set to rejoin the MVP race. After starring in 95 games in 2025, a full healthy season could push him back among baseball’s elite, with Steamer seeing him as a top-10 position player.
2) Seattle boasts two top-five talents
Cal Raleigh: 38 HR, 5.9 WAR
Julio Rodríguez: 30 HR, 23 SB, 5.3 WAR
Raleigh’s monster power at catcher and Rodríguez’s dynamic all-around game in center give the Mariners two of the five most valuable projected position players a rare duo at premium spots.
3) Munetaka Murakami projects for 30 bombs
Projected: 30 HR, 118 wRC+
Despite questions about contact, the former NPB slugger is forecast to be an impact bat in his MLB debut, rating well above league average offensively.
4) A 200-strikeout comeback for Jacob deGrom?
Projected: 29 GS, 174⅔ IP, 3.52 ERA, 202 K
At 38, deGrom is still projected to rack up strikeouts like an ace, potentially reaching 200 Ks for the first time since 2019.
5) Nick Kurtz and Junior Caminero among elite bats
Kurtz: 31 HR, .886 OPS, 140 wRC+
Caminero: 34 HR, .869 OPS, 137 wRC+
Two young breakout stars are expected to cement themselves as top-10 hitters league-wide.
6) Skubal vs. Crochet, round two
Skubal: 2.80 ERA, 243 K, 5.9 WAR
Crochet: 3.03 ERA, 238 K, 5.5 WAR
After dueling for the Cy Young, the lefty aces are projected for nearly identical elite seasons again.
7) Henderson–Alonso could power Baltimore
Gunnar Henderson: 27 HR, 21 SB, 5.7 WAR
Pete Alonso: 35 HR, 101 RBIs
If both hit these marks, the Orioles lineup becomes one of baseball’s most dangerous.
8) Faith in Strider and McClanahan
Both injury-plagued stars are projected to bounce back with strong ERAs and high strikeout rates, suggesting frontline stuff remains.
9) Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman: different styles, similar value
Despite contrasting skill sets, projections see them delivering nearly equal WAR for their new teams.
10) Nick Pivetta joins the 200-K club?
Projected: 202 strikeouts
Among big-name aces, Pivetta stands out as the surprise candidate to reach 200 Ks.
11) Vlad Jr. and Yordan Alvarez: average + power
Both are projected near .300 with huge slugging numbers, blending batting-title-level contact with middle-of-the-order thump.
12) Kyle Bradish as a top-25 arm
After flashes of dominance post-surgery, Steamer expects a full season of above-average production.
13) Mason Miller’s strikeout rates are absurd
Projected: 2.38 ERA, 14.3 K/9, nearly 40% K rate
No pitcher matches his projected dominance per inning, even among elite closers.
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