For much of his career, Aaron Nola has been one of the Philadelphia Phillies’ most dependable players, consistently taking the ball every fifth day and giving his team quality innings. However, that reputation has taken a significant hit over the past two seasons, as the veteran right-hander continues to battle one of the worst stretches of his major league career.
Nola recently reached an important career milestone when he made the 302nd start of his career with the Phillies against the Pittsburgh Pirates, moving into sole possession of third place on the franchise’s all-time starts list. Selected 14th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, he developed into the ace Philadelphia envisioned, becoming known for his durability, command, and ability to keep the team competitive deep into games.
Unfortunately, those strengths have largely disappeared since the beginning of the 2025 season.
His latest outing against Pittsburgh only added to growing concerns. The Phillies fell 11-7, and Nola struggled once again, allowing multiple runs while failing to provide the stability the rotation desperately needed. Following the loss, his 2026 ERA climbed to 6.04, reinforcing what has become an alarming trend rather than a temporary slump.
Looking beyond this season paints an even more troubling picture. Across 34 starts dating back to the start of 2025, Nola owns a 6.02 ERA, making him the third-worst qualified starting pitcher in Major League Baseball among pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings during that span. Only Jack Kochanowicz of the Los Angeles Angels and Germán Márquez, who has pitched for both the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres, have posted higher earned run averages over the same period.
What makes Nola’s struggles stand out even more is the financial commitment attached to him. Unlike Kochanowicz or Márquez, who are not expected to anchor a rotation, Nola is signed to a long-term contract that pays him approximately $24.6 million annually through the 2030 season. The Phillies invested in him as a frontline starter capable of leading a championship-caliber rotation, but his recent performances have fallen well below those expectations.
The contrast between his past and present has become difficult to ignore. For years, Nola’s greatest assets were his consistency, durability, and ability to pitch deep into games. Now, he has struggled to limit hard contact, escape innings efficiently, and keep Philadelphia in position to win whenever he takes the mound.
Unlike highly regarded prospect Andrew Painter, who was recently sent back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to rebuild his mechanics and confidence, Nola does not have the option of a developmental reset. As an established veteran with a sizable contract, he will remain in the major league rotation despite his continued struggles.
That reality places additional pressure on Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham and the rest of the coaching staff to identify the root causes of Nola’s decline. Whether the issues stem from diminished velocity, mechanical inconsistencies, command problems, or lingering effects from injuries that disrupted his 2025 campaign, Philadelphia needs answers quickly.
The Phillies are already navigating uncertainty elsewhere in the rotation, including bullpen-style games when depth options are called upon. If Nola cannot regain even a portion of the form that once made him one of the National League’s most reliable starters, the club’s postseason aspirations could become increasingly difficult to sustain.
While Nola’s accomplishments over more than a decade with the organization have secured his place in franchise history, his recent performances have sparked legitimate concern. For the Phillies to remain contenders, they need far more from a pitcher who was once considered one of the rotation’s most dependable cornerstones.
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