The St. Louis Cardinals entered the 2026 season with modest expectations as the organization continued through a rebuilding phase, but several young players helped transform the club into a surprisingly competitive team. Breakout performances from Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt and other emerging pieces gave St. Louis legitimate reasons for optimism throughout the season. However, the Cardinals’ progress has also exposed some significant weaknesses, particularly in the bullpen, where their All-Star closer has experienced a dramatic second-half decline.
Riley O’Brien, who earned a spot on the National League All-Star team this season, has emerged as one of the biggest concerns for St. Louis down the stretch. His overall numbers initially suggested a highly successful campaign, particularly because he leads the National League with 37 saves. But his 4.13 ERA and struggles since the All-Star break have dramatically changed the conversation surrounding his role. Instead of finishing the season as one of the Cardinals’ most dependable relievers, O’Brien has become a source of uncertainty for manager Oli Marmol and the organization.
The Cardinals’ bullpen problems have been particularly noticeable when protecting leads late in games. According to ESPN analysis cited in the original report, only two teams had blown more saves than St. Louis relievers, while only one team had allowed a higher percentage of inherited runners to score. Those numbers highlight a larger problem than O’Brien’s individual struggles: the Cardinals have repeatedly struggled to close out games and protect advantages once their starters leave the mound. For a team that has remained competitive despite its rebuilding status, those late-inning failures have been costly.
O’Brien has been at the center of that problem. Although his 37 saves demonstrate that he has been given significant responsibility, his performance after the All-Star break has not matched the expectations that come with being the team’s ninth-inning option. He has blown four saves since the All-Star break while posting a 5.40 ERA during that stretch. The sharp contrast between his first-half success and second-half struggles has made his season increasingly difficult to evaluate.
One of the most damaging moments came during a return trip to Philadelphia, where O’Brien was given the ball in the ninth inning with the Cardinals holding a 4-0 advantage. With two outs and the game seemingly under control, the situation completely unraveled. O’Brien surrendered the lead before Kyle Schwarber delivered a walk-off home run for the Phillies, turning what appeared to be a comfortable Cardinals victory into a painful loss. The collapse became a particularly visible example of the difficulties St. Louis has experienced in the late innings.
The concern surrounding O’Brien is not simply based on one bad appearance or a handful of blown saves. His second-half statistics have created questions about whether his command, pitch execution and overall consistency can hold up when he is asked to handle the highest-pressure situations. A closer can accumulate saves while still creating significant stress for his team, and that has increasingly become the situation for St. Louis as the season has progressed.
At the same time, there is reason for the Cardinals to remain patient with O’Brien. His underlying ability has never been the primary question. He possesses the type of pitching arsenal that can make him an effective, potentially dominant late-inning reliever. The bigger issue has been consistency. When his pitches are located properly and his command is working, he has demonstrated the ability to get important outs and finish games. The challenge is finding a way to reproduce that version of himself more regularly.
That distinction could be especially important for St. Louis heading into the offseason. The Cardinals are still trying to determine which players from their current roster can become long-term pieces as the organization continues its transition. O’Brien appeared to be moving toward becoming one of those pieces when he earned All-Star recognition and established himself as the team’s primary closer. His second-half decline, however, means the Cardinals may have to reconsider how much they can rely on him entering 2027.
For Marmol and the Cardinals’ front office, the question is not necessarily whether O’Brien should remain in the organization, but whether he can regain the reliability expected from a ninth-inning pitcher. The team has invested considerable trust in him throughout the season, and his league-leading save total shows that he has been given repeated opportunities to succeed. But if the command problems and late-inning volatility continue, St. Louis may need to explore additional bullpen options rather than automatically handing O’Brien the closer’s job next season.
The timing makes the situation even more important. With the Cardinals nearing the end of a season that has exceeded many preseason expectations, the organization needs to separate genuine building blocks from players whose performances may have been inconsistent. O’Brien’s All-Star selection demonstrates that he has the talent to be part of the team’s future, but his second-half numbers have created enough uncertainty that his role can no longer be considered automatic.
Ultimately, O’Brien’s 2026 season has become a tale of two halves. His 37 saves and All-Star selection represent the success he achieved earlier in the year, while his 5.40 ERA and four blown saves since the break illustrate the problems that have emerged more recently. The Cardinals still have an opportunity to determine whether the latter stretch is simply a prolonged slump or evidence of a deeper consistency problem.
For a rebuilding team hoping to turn competitive baseball into sustained success, finding dependable late-inning pitching will be critical. O’Brien still has the opportunity to reestablish himself as that pitcher, but the final games of 2026 and the decisions that follow could play a major role in determining whether St. Louis continues to view him as its closer of the future.
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