The St. Louis Cardinals are entering an important stage of their roster rebuild, and one of the biggest questions facing the organization is how long to continue giving young or developing players opportunities at the major-league level.
Player development rarely follows a straight line. Some prospects need several seasons before they become reliable contributors, while others never make the necessary adjustments. The Cardinals have also learned that giving up on a player too early can come back to haunt them, while keeping a struggling player around for too long can prevent another prospect from receiving a legitimate opportunity.
The organization’s history offers examples on both sides. The trade that sent Randy Arozarena away remains a reminder of the danger of moving on from a player before he has a genuine opportunity to establish himself. On the other hand, former Cardinals pitcher Jamie Moyer illustrates how patience can sometimes be rewarded. Moyer did not become an effective major-league pitcher until his 30s and eventually won 269 games after receiving opportunities with several organizations before finding his best form with Seattle.
So, how does St. Louis determine whether a player deserves more time or whether it is finally time to move on?
According to the factors discussed by Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol and members of the organization, the evaluation involves considerably more than simply looking at a player’s batting average or ERA.
1. Actual performance still matters
The most obvious factor is production.
Players who consistently perform well are naturally going to receive more opportunities. Gordon Graceffo is a good example. While some of his underlying pitching metrics remain less impressive, including a 4.45 FIP and 5.05 xFIP, his 3.04 ERA demonstrates that he has found ways to get outs.
His ability to limit home runs and generate soft contact has helped him outperform some of the underlying expectations, giving the Cardinals a reason to continue giving him opportunities.
In other words, results still carry significant weight, particularly when a player is finding ways to contribute despite imperfections in his overall profile.
2. Underlying statistics can reveal future improvement
The Cardinals also pay close attention to metrics that may indicate a player’s results are about to improve.
This is particularly important when a young player has a limited major-league sample size. If the underlying numbers suggest better production is coming, the organization can choose to remain patient even when the traditional statistics are disappointing.
Jimmy Crooks provides an example. His 65 wRC+ is not impressive, but other indicators offer encouragement. His .234 BABIP, 92.0 mph average exit velocity, 48.5% hard-hit rate and 41.2% sweet-spot rate suggest that his offensive results may not fully reflect his underlying ability. His defensive profile also provides value, with strong framing and throwing ability despite some struggles as a blocker.
That combination can convince the Cardinals that a struggling player deserves additional time.
3. The ability to make adjustments is critical
Young players are not expected to arrive in the majors as finished products. Sometimes, the adjustments they need to make can only happen against major-league competition.
Jordan Walker is a prime example.
Walker was unlikely to completely solve his struggles against sweepers and sliders at Triple-A because he would not consistently see the quality and variety of those pitches there. Instead, he needed to experience those challenges at the MLB level and learn how to respond.
The Cardinals noticed that Walker was making adjustments before the improved results became obvious. Because they could see the development happening beneath the surface, the organization had reason to continue giving him opportunities.
4. Progress can buy a player more time
Development is rarely linear, so the Cardinals also look for signs that a player is moving in the right direction.
Michael McGreevy provides an example. One of his major challenges entering 2026 was finding better ways to handle left-handed hitters. Although that remains a work in progress, his OPS and FIP against left-handed batters have improved considerably compared with the previous season.
His strikeout rate against lefties still leaves room for improvement, but the overall trend suggests that progress is occurring. That gives the Cardinals another reason to keep allowing him to develop.
5. Defensive value can extend a player’s runway
Offensive struggles do not necessarily mean a position player will immediately lose playing time.
Defense can become an important factor, particularly when a player fills a difficult defensive position.
Nathan Church illustrates this point. He went through a severe offensive slump, going hitless in 27 consecutive at-bats. Despite the prolonged struggles, his defensive ability in center field helped him maintain playing time.
With his defense considered significantly better than the other available center-field options, the Cardinals had a reason to continue putting him in the lineup while waiting for his offense to improve.
6. The player must receive a legitimate opportunity
Age and sample size also play major roles in the evaluation.
Blaze Jordan, for example, is still only 23 and has accumulated just 147 plate appearances. That is not enough evidence to make a definitive judgment about his future, particularly because his opportunities have been inconsistent.
Some of his Statcast indicators remain encouraging, while his early defensive contributions have been better than expected. With such a limited sample, the Cardinals have reason to continue evaluating him before making a final decision.
7. Eventually, a better alternative can end the runway
Perhaps the biggest factor is competition.
A player can continue receiving opportunities until the organization believes another player is capable of doing the job better.
That applies to veterans and rookies alike, except for players protected by significant long-term contracts. Once the Cardinals identify a legitimate replacement, patience can quickly disappear.
Nathan Church could face that situation if his offensive approach continues trending in the wrong direction and prospects such as Joshua Baez, Josiah Ragsdale or Jeremy Peete emerge as better center-field options.
Which Cardinals players are approaching a decision point?
The Cardinals have several players whose futures could become major offseason decisions as the organization continues reshaping its roster.
Nolan Gorman
Gorman was sent to Memphis earlier in the season after his power disappeared, but his bat has recently shown signs of life again.
That resurgence could earn him additional opportunities. The Cardinals still need power in their major-league lineup, and no other player has completely seized the opening created at third base.
Gorman also remains arguably the team’s best defensive option at the position, giving him several factors working in his favor.
Victor Scott
Scott’s biggest obstacle remains his offensive production.
His defense is considered excellent, but St. Louis already has another player who can provide comparable defensive value without the same offensive concerns.
With additional outfield prospects emerging, Scott may need to demonstrate more progress with the bat before receiving another significant opportunity.
Matthew Liberatore
Liberatore may be facing one of the most important crossroads on the roster.
His late-2024 and first-half 2025 performances suggested that he could develop into a quality pitcher, but his results have deteriorated since then. His 2026 season has been particularly inconsistent, with too many poor outings mixed among the good ones.
Although he has attempted to make changes to his pitch mix and pitch shapes, the progress has been difficult to identify consistently. Meanwhile, a number of younger pitchers are approaching the majors.
With Quinn Mathews now on the 40-man roster, the organization may have less incentive to continue waiting on Liberatore. His age and service-time situation could also work against him as the Cardinals plan their future rotation.
Jimmy Crooks
Crooks remains an intriguing case because his underlying numbers suggest there could be more offensive production ahead.
However, the emergence of prospects Leo Bernal and Rainel Rodriguez means his window may become increasingly narrow if he cannot translate those encouraging metrics into actual results.
Ivan Herrera
Herrera’s situation is different because he has already established himself as a legitimate major-league hitter.
Even during his offensive struggles in July, the Cardinals continued playing him because they already knew what he could provide offensively.
The bigger question concerns his future specifically as a catcher. His defensive work behind the plate remains behind players such as Crooks and Pages in areas including framing, blocking and throwing.
The Cardinals therefore must decide whether Herrera’s defensive shortcomings are manageable enough to keep him as a primary catcher.
Blaze Jordan
Jordan remains firmly in the evaluation stage because of his limited sample size.
Roughly 100 plate appearances against right-handed pitching are not enough to definitively determine whether he has a platoon weakness. The organization could therefore benefit from giving him more regular playing time during the final weeks of the season.
If those opportunities do not come, the reasoning behind that decision will be worth watching closely.
Cesar Prieto
Prieto has endured an extremely difficult beginning to his major-league career, going 0-for-26 in his initial opportunities.
That is obviously concerning, especially because he has not drawn a walk during that stretch. Still, the sample remains too small for the Cardinals to make an immediate final judgment.
The challenge is determining how much additional time he deserves before the organization concludes that the transition is not working.
The biggest complication: prospects are coming
The Cardinals’ decisions become even more difficult because several highly regarded prospects are approaching MLB readiness.
Joshua Baez, Quinn Mathews, Leo Bernal and Brycen Mautz are all on the 40-man roster, meaning their opportunities could arrive sooner rather than later.
Adding those players to the major-league roster would require more than simply removing someone from the end of the bench. The Cardinals would also need to determine which current players are occupying valuable playing time that could instead be used to develop the next wave of talent.
That creates the central dilemma for St. Louis: How much patience is enough?
The Cardinals do not want to repeat the mistake of moving on from a developing player too early, but they also cannot give every player unlimited time when more promising prospects are approaching.
Ultimately, performance, underlying metrics, adjustments, progress, defense, opportunity and available alternatives will determine which players receive another chance and whose runway finally comes to an end.
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