The New York Mets are heading into an offseason filled with uncertainty, and one of the first major challenges facing the organization will be determining which players remain part of the 40-man roster for 2027. With the Rule 5 Draft approaching and several prospects pushing toward the major leagues, the Mets have limited room to keep everyone they like. Some established players could be moved, several arbitration-eligible names could be non-tendered, and a handful of prospects will need protection before other teams have an opportunity to select them.
Once Jorge Polanco, Reed Garrett and Tylor Megill are officially activated from the 60-day injured list, the Mets’ 40-man roster will stand at 43 players. That number means the front office will have to create space before adding prospects and making additional offseason moves. The roster decisions also provide an early look at what the Mets’ 2027 team could eventually resemble, particularly as the organization balances expensive veterans with younger players who are beginning to demand opportunities.
Guaranteed contracts create the first dilemma
The Mets currently have nine players under guaranteed contracts for the 2027 season: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, Devin Williams and Luis Torrens.
Several of those players are essentially guaranteed to remain because of either their importance to the roster or the financial realities surrounding their contracts. Soto and Lindor are obvious cornerstone pieces unless circumstances lead to a trade involving Lindor. Torrens is also expected to remain after signing an extension that makes his contract relatively manageable.
The situations involving Williams, Senga and Manaea are more complicated. Their performances may not necessarily justify easy trades, but moving those contracts could require the Mets to absorb a significant portion of the remaining money. As a result, keeping them may be more practical than attempting to create roster space by dealing them.
Bichette is another interesting case. Despite recent speculation about his future, his performance during the season makes it reasonable to expect him to exercise his option and remain with the Mets.
The biggest uncertainty among the guaranteed contracts involves Semien and Polanco. The Mets could potentially move one of them to clear a roster spot and create playing time for younger players. Semien’s situation is especially notable because his age, production and roster fit could make it difficult for the Mets to justify keeping him in a major role while prospects such as Jefferson Rojas, Emilien Pitre and Mitch Voit continue to develop.
A trade that requires New York to absorb some money could therefore become a realistic option. Cutting Semien would also be an expensive decision, but it could give the Mets greater flexibility and allow younger players to move into more prominent roles.
For projection purposes, the roster is expected to lose one player from this group, bringing the working count down to 42.
Arbitration decisions could create even more openings
The next group consists of 10 arbitration-eligible players: Tylor Megill, Dedniel Núñez, Austin Warren, Cionel Pérez, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Cristian Pache, Brett Baty, Cristopher Morel and Reed Garrett.
This group could provide the Mets with another significant opportunity to create roster space.
Morel and Pache appear to be among the clearest non-tender candidates, while Pérez is also vulnerable. Vientos presents a more complicated case. While he could technically remain under team control, his future with the Mets appears increasingly uncertain, and a trade or non-tender decision could open another spot.
Most of the remaining players are either inexpensive enough or productive enough to justify another season in the organization. Baty is the major question mark. He has shown enough to remain interesting, but the Mets must decide whether his projected arbitration salary — potentially more than $2 million — is worth paying for a player whose long-term role remains unclear.
For now, the projection assumes Baty stays while four roster spots are eliminated from the arbitration group, reducing the projected roster to 38 players.
Pre-arbitration players offer another layer of competition
The Mets have 11 pre-arbitration players who appear relatively safe heading into the offseason. That group includes Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Jonah Tong, Nate Lavender, Zac Thornton, Hayden Senger, Jared Young, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Nick Morabito and Justin Hagenman.
Several of these players represent the younger core the Mets will want to evaluate more closely in 2027. McLean and Benge, in particular, have generated considerable attention because of their potential impact on the major-league roster.
Jonah Tong is slightly different. He could become a trade candidate depending on the Mets’ offseason strategy, but there is little reason to remove him simply to create roster space. He remains a valuable pitching prospect who could become part of a larger transaction.
Hagenman also provides useful depth because he still has minor-league options, allowing the Mets to move him between the majors and minors without immediately risking him on waivers.
Five additional pre-arbitration players are currently out of options: Chayce McDermott, Tobias Myers, Robert Stock, Ronny Mauricio and Daniel Duarte.
Myers still has enough utility to remain in the organization, while McDermott could potentially be exposed to waivers if the Mets need room. Stock, Duarte and Mauricio appear more vulnerable. Mauricio, in particular, could become an intriguing trade candidate because another organization might be willing to give him the consistent playing time that New York cannot guarantee.
That group could result in another four roster spots being cleared.
There is also a collection of less-established pitchers and utility players, including Jonathan Pintaro, Dylan Ross, Jack Weisenburger, Cameron Weston, Phillip Abner, Jefry Yan, Eric Wagaman and Christian Cairo.
Most of these players do not currently have enough major-league production or a standout skill that would make them automatic 40-man roster locks. Some have already experienced the uncertainty of the waiver process, making them vulnerable to further roster turnover.
The projection therefore assumes another four spots are opened through routine roster churn while approximately four places remain available for this type of depth player.
That brings the working roster count down to 30.
Prospect decisions become the most important part
Once the Mets clear the veteran and fringe-player clutter, the most interesting decisions involve their prospects.
Jefferson Rojas and Jacob Reimer are considered clear 40-man roster additions. The Mets have enough invested in both players, and their potential makes exposing them to the Rule 5 Draft too risky.
Gary Gill Hill is another near-lock. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Freddy Peralta trade, Gill Hill is viewed as a nearly major-league-ready starting pitcher with enough quality to potentially help New York in the relatively near future.
Zach Franklin, acquired in the Huascar Brazobán trade, is also expected to receive protection. His development has made him a potential bullpen option for the beginning of the 2027 season.
Jack Wenninger is another likely addition despite experiencing a step backward in 2026. After a breakout 2025 season, his performance and stuff regressed in Triple-A, but some of that can be attributed to the unusual offensive environment at that level. More importantly, his potential major-league usefulness could make him vulnerable to being selected in the Rule 5 Draft if the Mets leave him exposed.
That makes protecting Wenninger a logical roster decision.
Several prospects could be left unprotected
Not every prospect will receive the same treatment.
Marco Vargas is one of the more difficult decisions. His contact ability has declined as he has advanced through the system, and he has not developed enough power to compensate. His strong numbers at St. Lucie and Binghamton were also helped by an unusually high .400 batting average on balls in play. Without a clear standout offensive tool, the Mets could decide that exposing him to the Rule 5 Draft is a reasonable risk.
Ryan Clifford is another prospect whose stock has fallen considerably. His struggles became especially concerning because they occurred in the extremely offense-friendly Triple-A environment. The lack of consistent offensive production makes it difficult to justify using one of the organization’s limited 40-man spots on him.
Chris Suero is also projected to remain unprotected. While he has generated interest because of his athletic profile and versatility, there are questions about both his hitting ability and whether he can realistically remain behind the plate long term.
Randy Guzman presents a different case. He is only 21 and has shown more upside than some of the other unprotected prospects, but he has significant strikeout concerns and has played only eight games above Single-A. He also missed the final month of the season with an injury. Protecting him now could force the Mets to begin using valuable roster flexibility before he is close to contributing in the majors.
The organization may therefore decide to take the risk of leaving him exposed.
Triple-A relievers could attract Rule 5 interest
The final major group involves Brian Metoyer, Saul Garcia and Ben Simon, three Triple-A relief pitchers with intriguing stuff.
All three have fastballs that could attract attention from teams searching for inexpensive bullpen options. Metoyer stands out because he also possesses a plus breaking ball, although his command is less reliable and he is the oldest of the group.
That combination makes him the most likely candidate for protection.
Garcia and Simon are more difficult calls. The Mets could protect both, but roster limitations could force them to choose. Leaving them exposed would create some risk because another organization could select one of them in the Rule 5 Draft.
For now, Metoyer projects as the player most likely to receive a 40-man roster spot, while Garcia and Simon could remain unprotected.
Mets have difficult decisions ahead
When all of these projections are combined, the Mets appear capable of creating enough room to add their most important prospects while simultaneously reshaping the major-league roster.
The decisions involving Semien, Polanco, Vientos, Baty, Mauricio and the organization’s fringe pitchers could significantly influence how much flexibility the Mets have going into free agency. The front office must also weigh the risk of losing prospects against the need to maintain enough roster space for potential external additions.
The Rule 5 Draft makes the situation even more complicated. Any player left unprotected can potentially be selected by another team, meaning the Mets cannot simply assume that they will be able to stash every interesting prospect in the minors.
At the same time, protecting everyone is impossible without making difficult decisions elsewhere.
That makes the coming weeks particularly important for New York. The Mets have a mix of expensive veterans, arbitration cases, young major leaguers and developing prospects, and the organization must determine which players fit its long-term plans.
The final 40-man roster will ultimately provide an early indication of how aggressively the Mets intend to reshape their team for 2027. Some familiar names could disappear, while several of the organization’s younger players could finally receive their opportunity to move closer to the major leagues.
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