The Philadelphia Phillies are facing growing uncertainty in their starting rotation, with two struggling pitchers standing out as the biggest question marks of the 2026 season: veteran Aaron Nola and young right-hander Andrew Painter. Both sit near the bottom of the team’s internal confidence rankings, but for very different reasons one is a seasoned arm trying to rediscover consistency, while the other is a former top prospect still adjusting to Major League expectations.
Andrew Painter entered the season with considerable hype despite lingering concerns following Tommy John surgery and a difficult stretch in Triple-A. Initially projected as the Phillies’ fifth starter, expectations for him were modest, with any additional production seen as a bonus. However, his struggles have been significant, as he carries a 6.21 ERA through 12 appearances (11 starts). A major concern has been his fastball effectiveness, which was already declining in the minors and has continued to be heavily punished in the majors. Opponents are hitting .390 with a .585 slugging percentage against his fastball, raising serious questions about his current readiness at the highest level.
On the other hand, Aaron Nola entered 2026 with less pressure in terms of expectations but arguably more importance to the Phillies’ rotation structure. Now in his 12th MLB season, Nola has also struggled significantly, posting a 5.86 ERA across 13 starts. After an inconsistent and injury-plagued 2025 season, the hope was that he could at least stabilize the back end of the rotation as a reliable innings eater. Instead, he has frequently failed to go deep into games, completing six innings or more in just four starts while exiting before the fifth inning in five of his outings. The lack of length has placed additional strain on the pitching staff.
Collectively, their struggles have created a major concern for Philadelphia. With two-fifths of the rotation failing to provide consistent quality innings, the bullpen has had to shoulder more pressure, particularly in the context of the Phillies’ tendency to play tight, one-run games. While the relief corps has not yet been overworked ranking among the lowest in innings pitched across MLB—the situation is beginning to trend in the wrong direction.
Compounding the issue is a lack of organizational depth in the starting rotation, leaving few immediate alternatives if struggles or injuries continue. As a result, the Phillies are heavily dependent on both Painter and Nola to stabilize their performance quickly.
With that in mind, the central question remains: which pitcher represents the bigger concern for the Phillies in 2026—Aaron Nola or Andrew Painter?
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