Joshua Báez has already secured his place in St. Louis Cardinals history, but his extraordinary Major League debut may ultimately be remembered as the beginning rather than the peak of his story.
Báez made an immediate impact by hitting a home run in each of his first three career at-bats, producing a historic debut that instantly placed his name among the most memorable first-game performances in baseball history. The power display generated national attention and gave Cardinals fans another exciting young player to follow as the organization continues its transition toward a new generation.
Once the spotlight surrounding his debut fades, however, Báez will face the much more difficult challenge of establishing himself as a consistent everyday Major League player. The Cardinals have invested heavily in his development since selecting him in the second round of the 2021 MLB Draft, and his arrival is clearly viewed as part of the organization’s long-term plans.
Báez entered the season ranked No. 59 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospect list, reflecting both his considerable upside and the developmental questions that remain. His combination of size, raw power and athletic ability makes him intriguing, but his future will largely depend on whether he can turn that potential into consistent production.
Here are five major questions that could shape Báez’s future in St. Louis.
1. Can Báez Make Enough Contact?
Perhaps the biggest question surrounding Báez throughout his professional career has been his ability to consistently make contact.
His power has never been in serious doubt. The challenge has been getting enough pitches he can handle and limiting strikeouts and swings at pitches outside the strike zone. Báez’s strikeout rate dropped dramatically from 35.5% in 2024 to 20.6% in 2025, representing significant progress in an area that had previously raised concerns.
There will still be plenty of strikeouts. Given Báez’s size, long swing and aggressive approach, expecting him to become a low-strikeout hitter would be unrealistic. The Cardinals instead need him to find the right balance between aggression and discipline.
His first few games after the historic debut demonstrated that challenge. Báez went 0-for-17 while striking out seven times, but several of his outs were hit extremely hard. Statcast suggested that some of those balls had a strong probability of becoming hits based on their exit velocity and launch characteristics.
That is an encouraging sign. If Báez can consistently put the barrel on the baseball, his natural power should allow him to produce even when his batting average fluctuates.
2. Where Will He Play and Where Should He Hit?
Báez has experience playing center field in the Minor Leagues, and his athleticism and strong throwing arm give the Cardinals some flexibility. Long term, though, he appears more likely to settle into one of the corner-outfield positions.
Left field currently looks like the most logical destination. The Cardinals created additional opportunity there following the trade of Lars Nootbaar, a move that also appeared to open a path for Báez to eventually take on a larger role.
His powerful arm could make him particularly valuable in the outfield. If he can become a reliable defender while maintaining his offensive development, the Cardinals could have a legitimate impact everyday player.
The batting order presents another interesting decision.
Báez hit fifth during his first two games, but manager Oliver Marmol experimented with him at leadoff during one game of Monday’s doubleheader against Cincinnati, particularly against a softer-throwing left-handed pitcher. He returned to the No. 5 spot later that day.
Given Báez’s relatively modest walk rate in Triple-A, a middle-of-the-order role may ultimately make more sense than placing him at the top. The Cardinals also have to consider how he fits alongside Jordan Walker and whether the club wants its young power hitters separated throughout the lineup or positioned together in the heart of the order.
3. Could Báez Become the Cardinals’ Next Rookie of the Year Candidate?
The Cardinals have already benefited from the arrival of highly regarded young talent, and Báez could give the organization another legitimate Rookie of the Year contender in 2027.
St. Louis carefully managed the timing of his promotion to ensure he would retain rookie eligibility for next season. That decision could prove important because Báez will have a full opportunity to compete for the National League Rookie of the Year award if he establishes himself as an everyday player.
The competition is expected to be strong, but Báez possesses one quality that can immediately separate him from many prospects: enormous power.
If he develops into the type of hitter the Cardinals believe he can become, his home-run totals and extra-base production could make him impossible to overlook in the award race.
The organization also has an additional incentive to develop and promote young talent successfully because of MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive, which can provide teams with an extra Draft pick under certain circumstances involving highly regarded prospects and award voting.
4. Could the Cardinals Try to Lock Him Up Early?
Another major question is whether St. Louis eventually attempts to secure Báez with a long-term contract before his value increases dramatically.
The Cardinals have already shown a willingness to commit early to young cornerstone players. JJ Wetherholt, another key part of the organization’s future, recently agreed to an eight-year extension after reaching the Major Leagues.
Báez could eventually become another candidate for that type of deal.
It would obviously be premature to make a major financial commitment based solely on a historic debut, particularly because he still has significant adjustments to make at the Major League level. However, if his power translates consistently and his contact skills continue improving, his price could rise quickly.
The Cardinals could therefore face an interesting decision: wait several seasons and risk paying considerably more later, or attempt to secure his services early while assuming greater developmental risk.
Recent deals involving young players such as Jackson Chourio and other emerging prospects have demonstrated why teams sometimes act before a player reaches his full potential.
If St. Louis truly views Báez as a foundational piece, an early extension could eventually become part of the conversation.
5. Can Báez Help Restore the Cardinals’ Energy?
Perhaps the most intriguing question goes beyond statistics.
The Cardinals are in the middle of a transition, and the organization is attempting to establish a new identity around a younger core. While Jordan Walker’s Home Run Derby victory and other memorable moments have provided excitement, Busch Stadium has not consistently felt like the powerhouse environment associated with some of the franchise’s best years.
Báez’s debut changed that atmosphere almost instantly.
His three-home-run performance became a national baseball story, generating excitement far beyond St. Louis. His teammates embraced the moment, and fans immediately had another young star to rally around.
That enthusiasm could become just as valuable as his production.
The Cardinals need young players who can not only contribute on the field but also give fans a reason to believe in the next era of the franchise. Báez has already demonstrated that he has the personality, power and charisma to become one of those players.
A Historic Debut Could Be Only the Beginning
Báez’s first three career at-bats were extraordinary, but the real test begins now. Historic debuts create enormous expectations, and the young outfielder will inevitably experience stretches of strikeouts, slumps and adjustments as opposing pitchers learn how to attack him.
The Cardinals, however, appear prepared to be patient.
The organization has spent years developing Báez and clearly believes his combination of raw power and upside can make him an important part of its future. If he can improve his plate discipline, make enough consistent contact and establish himself defensively, the three-homer debut could eventually look less like a once-in-a-lifetime event and more like an early preview of the player St. Louis hoped it was developing.
For a Cardinals team searching for its next generation of stars, Báez has arrived at an ideal time. His debut has already created history. Now, the bigger question is whether he can turn that unforgettable beginning into a long and impactful career in St. Louis.
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