The St. Louis Cardinals have reached a pivotal point in their 2026 season, with only 35 games remaining to determine whether they can make a late push toward the postseason or settle for a finish around the .500 mark. While the club’s playoff chances remain uncertain, its remaining schedule offers enough opportunities to make the final weeks of the season meaningful.
The Cardinals’ current situation looks considerably more encouraging than it did during their difficult stretch in July. Since traveling to New York and defeating the Yankees, St. Louis has gone 10-5, collecting series victories against several notable opponents, including the Yankees, Rockies, Phillies and Cubs. The Cardinals have also taken two of the first three games against the Reds in Cincinnati, giving them another opportunity to build momentum during the final portion of their road trip.
That recent run does not guarantee a postseason berth, but it does provide reason for optimism. The Cardinals have demonstrated that they can compete with teams at different points of the standings, and their recent success has kept them within striking distance of the Wild Card picture.
Playoff Chances Remain Slim but Real
St. Louis still has plenty of work to do. Fangraphs gives the Cardinals only a 12.5% chance of reaching the postseason, making it clear that the odds remain heavily against them. With 35 games left, however, the season is far from mathematically settled, and a strong September could dramatically change the picture.
One reason not to completely dismiss the Cardinals is their run differential. St. Louis sits at +10, putting it in the same general range as several teams competing for the Wild Card. The Phillies are at +12, while the Padres and Diamondbacks sit at +5 and +3, respectively. Although run differential alone does not determine playoff qualification, it suggests the Cardinals have played competitively enough to remain part of the conversation.
There is also the possibility that several teams currently viewed as contenders could stumble. The Cubs and Phillies are considered strong Wild Card candidates, while the Padres, Diamondbacks and other clubs remain involved in the race. The Cardinals therefore need both continued winning and some help from teams ahead of them.
The Remaining Schedule Could Work in St. Louis’ Favor
The strength of schedule provides perhaps the biggest reason for Cardinals fans to remain interested in the final weeks.
St. Louis still has challenging series against the Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies and White Sox. Those games could determine whether the Cardinals are capable of competing with postseason-caliber teams when the pressure increases. At the same time, the schedule includes opportunities against the Rockies, Giants, Reds, Orioles and Guardians, along with matchups against the Nationals and Pirates.
That mixture of difficult and more manageable opponents could create an ideal opportunity for St. Louis to make up ground. The Cardinals cannot afford to waste games against teams they are expected to beat, while wins against the stronger opponents could provide the kind of boost needed to remain alive deep into September.
The Reds series is particularly important in the immediate future. After already taking two of three games in Cincinnati, the Cardinals have an opportunity to continue building momentum and turn a favorable stretch into a genuine late-season surge.
Other Wild Card Contenders Face Their Own Challenges
St. Louis is not the only team facing a difficult final stretch.
The Cubs still have games against the Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Marlins and both Chicago-area rivals, along with matchups against the Pirates, Reds and Mariners. Their schedule contains enough difficult games to create opportunities for the Cardinals if Chicago begins to struggle.
The Phillies also have a challenging collection of opponents remaining, including the Brewers, Braves, Rays, Diamondbacks, Astros and Cardinals. Although they are viewed as a strong playoff candidate, their postseason position is not completely secure.
The Padres have a more balanced schedule, meaning their biggest challenge may be their own ability to consistently perform. The Nationals could also complicate the Wild Card picture because their remaining schedule includes games against the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Padres, Cardinals and Marlins.
The Diamondbacks arguably have the most favorable remaining schedule among the Wild Card contenders. They still have difficult opponents, but games against the Rockies, Giants, Royals, Reds and Rangers could give Arizona plenty of opportunities to gain ground.
A September Nobody Should Ignore
The Cardinals’ path to the postseason remains difficult, but writing them off completely would be premature. Their recent 10-5 stretch demonstrates that the team is capable of putting together sustained winning baseball, and the remaining schedule gives them enough opportunities to continue doing so.
There is even an intriguing tiebreaker possibility involving the Cubs. If St. Louis somehow finished tied with Chicago for the final Wild Card position, the Cardinals would have the advantage because they won the season series. While such a scenario remains unlikely, it illustrates just how many variables could influence the playoff race over the final 35 games.
The Cardinals do not need to become an unstoppable team overnight. They simply need to keep winning, capitalize on the more favorable portions of their schedule and hope some of the teams ahead of them begin to falter.
If that happens, September could become far more exciting than many expected a few weeks ago. St. Louis may still have a long road to the postseason, but with 35 games remaining and a relatively manageable schedule ahead, the Cardinals have earned the right to keep fighting.
For now, the immediate mission is straightforward: continue taking care of business against Cincinnati and build from there. A late-season surge could turn what once looked like a fading campaign into a September playoff chase.
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