The St. Louis Cardinals entered the 2026 season expecting to take a step back, but for much of the first half they exceeded expectations and surprisingly positioned themselves in the National League playoff race. That strong stretch had many around Major League Baseball believing the club would be aggressive buyers ahead of the trade deadline.
Now, however, the outlook has changed dramatically.
A rough July has completely shifted the conversation surrounding the Cardinals. After entering Wednesday’s series finale against the Los Angeles Angels riding a four-game losing streak and slipping out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, St. Louis appears to be trending away from playoff contention and closer to becoming sellers before the deadline.
Cardinals’ Recent Collapse Changes Trade Deadline Outlook
For months, the Cardinals were one of baseball’s biggest surprises. Despite entering the year in what many considered a rebuilding phase following several offseason roster moves, they remained competitive and consistently hovered in the postseason picture.
That success led many analysts to believe St. Louis would strengthen its roster for a playoff push.
But recent struggles have forced the front office to reconsider.
According to The Athletic’s Tim Britton and Chad Jennings, the Cardinals are now “clearly trending to the sell side” after their disappointing July performance. Rather than aggressively adding talent, St. Louis may instead look to balance the present with the future by moving veterans while still remaining competitive if possible.
The club now finds itself in one of the most difficult positions of any team ahead of the deadline—caught between chasing an increasingly unlikely playoff berth and continuing the long-term rebuild that began over the winter.
Buy and Sell? Cardinals Could Take a Hybrid Approach
Rather than committing fully to either direction, the Cardinals could explore a hybrid strategy by both buying and selling.
If they decide to acquire players, the front office is unlikely to pursue short-term rental pieces who could leave in free agency after the season. Instead, any additions would likely be players under team control beyond 2026, giving the organization help both now and in future seasons.
That approach would allow St. Louis to remain competitive without sacrificing long-term flexibility.
Dustin May’s Trade Value Has Become a Question Mark
One of the Cardinals’ most obvious trade candidates has been veteran starter Dustin May.
Earlier in the season, May looked like one of the better rental pitchers who could attract interest from contenders seeking rotation help. However, his recent performances have cooled some of that excitement, potentially lowering his trade value at the worst possible time.
The Cardinals will likely be hoping May finishes strong over his remaining starts before the deadline, as another quality outing could significantly improve the return they receive in any potential deal.
Riley O’Brien Emerging as St. Louis’ Most Valuable Trade Chip
While May’s value has become less certain, reliever Riley O’Brien may now represent the Cardinals’ most attractive asset.
Although O’Brien hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was earlier in the season, he remains one of the National League leaders in saves and continues to offer something contenders covet: years of affordable team control.
Unlike rental players, O’Brien is under contract for three additional seasons beyond 2026, making him an appealing option for teams looking to strengthen their bullpen for multiple playoff runs instead of just one postseason.
That extra control could allow St. Louis to demand a far stronger prospect package than it would receive for its expiring contracts.
Starting Pitching Remains a Long-Term Need
Ironically, even if the Cardinals move pitchers before the deadline, starting rotation depth remains one of the organization’s biggest weaknesses.
Should president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom choose to trade a controllable arm like O’Brien, the return could include young pitching prospects capable of helping strengthen the rotation in the years ahead.
Meanwhile, the team’s rental players may not generate significant interest due to inconsistent performances throughout the season, making it even more important for the Cardinals to maximize value from players with multiple years of club control.
Important Deadline Decisions Await
With the trade deadline approaching quickly, St. Louis appears to be heading toward its third sell-off in the past four seasons.
The next several days could determine the direction of the franchise for years to come. Whether the Cardinals commit fully to selling or attempt to balance buying and selling simultaneously, Bloom faces one of the organization’s most important deadlines in recent memory.
What once looked like a season headed toward an unexpected postseason push has instead become another reminder that rebuilding often comes with difficult decisions—and unless the Cardinals suddenly reverse their July struggles, those decisions may soon involve preparing more for the future than the present.
Leave a Reply